Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Black Duck Population Trend in Pennsylvania
American Black Duck in Pennsylvania has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-75%Since 1968
22Routes In State
25Years
Notable American Black Duck Trends in Pennsylvania
long arc declinecomputed index
American Black Duck has fallen sharply in Pennsylvania: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
American Black Duck Population Forecast in Pennsylvania
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2026
0.00Projected 2026 index
0.00–0.1395% range
±67.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2023 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2024 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
American Black Duck Survey Routes in Pennsylvania
| Jefferson | 16 | 1976 | 1966 |
| Gatchelville | 10 | 1972 | 1972 |
| Clover | 3 | 1995 | 1991 |
| Brunnerville | 3 | 2000 | 1974 |
| Ferris Crnrs | 2 | 2016 | 2016 |
| Wild Creek | 2 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Susquehanna | 2 | 2014 | 2014 |
| Duvall | 2 | 2021 | 2021 |
| Pottstown | 2 | 1979 | 1979 |
| West Grove | 2 | 1972 | 1972 |
| Teepleville | 1 | 1970 | 1966 |
| Ridgway | 1 | 1967 | 1967 |
| Little Marsh | 1 | 2004 | 2004 |
| Mawr Glen | 1 | 1968 | 1968 |
| Rush | 1 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Honesdale | 1 | 2004 | 1983 |
| Starlight | 1 | 1970 | 1970 |
| Greentown | 1 | 2005 | 1986 |
| Portersville | 1 | 1975 | 1975 |
| Mount Joy | 1 | 1990 | 1990 |
| Clearfield | 1 | 1988 | 1988 |
| Drehersville | 1 | 1971 | 1971 |
American Black Duck Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.