Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck

AnatidaeWaterfowlAnas rubripes

American Black Duck has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the American Black Duck

The American Black Duck (Anas rubripes) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 355 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 21 states, most concentrated in the Atlantic Northern Forest.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable American Black Duck TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

American Black Duck has collapsed in surveyed states: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Black Duck Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±508.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±508.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.04
20260.000.000.04
20270.000.000.04
20280.000.000.04
20290.000.000.04

Where the American Black Duck Is Detected

BBS routes recording American Black Duck, sized by most recent count.

American Black Duck Population Trend by State

American Black Duck population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a1
Connecticut-88%196911
Delaware+45%19699
Indianainsufficient datan/a1
Maine-88%196856
Maryland-48%196822
Massachusetts-93%196821
Michigan-56%197127
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a10
New Hampshire-89%196823
New Jersey-81%196819
New York-95%196863
North Carolina-91%19753
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a9
Ohioinsufficient datan/a5
Pennsylvania-75%196822
Rhode Island+57%19703
Vermont-87%196820
Virginia-21%19926
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a2
Wisconsin-77%196822

American Black Duck Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

American Black Duck population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes+10%198910
Boreal Hardwood Transition-90%196834
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-92%196842
Atlantic Northern Forest-93%1968112
Prairie Hardwood Transition-10%197026
Southeastern Coastal Plain-85%19754
Appalachian Mountains-91%196829
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-79%196886

American Black Duck Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 96% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.