BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWaterfowl

American Black Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Black Duck has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Black Duck In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±268.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.34
20260.000.000.33
20270.000.000.33
20280.000.000.33
20290.000.000.33

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording American Black Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK82008
WarrenMAINE71989
HarmonyMAINE72015
HancockMAINE71998
Blue Ridge NNEW-YORK72010
Old ForgeNEW-YORK61976
Horse MtnMAINE52010
HighmarketNEW-YORK51990
BiddefordMAINE42000
ManchesterMAINE41995
CarrabassettMAINE42000
BenedictaMAINE41993
WashburnMAINE41996
WarrensburgNEW-YORK41992
LandgroveVERMONT41999
Post MillsVERMONT41999
GreensboroVERMONT41988
NewcastleMAINE31994
Otisfield GrMAINE32011
HermonMAINE32011
Seboomook LkMAINE32014
MedwayMAINE32002
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE31995
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE31990
MarlboroVERMONT31973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.