BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWaterfowl

American Black Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Black Duck has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±268.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.34
20260.000.000.33
20270.000.000.33
20280.000.000.33
20290.000.000.33

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording American Black Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK82008
WarrenMAINE71989
HarmonyMAINE72015
HancockMAINE71998
Blue Ridge NNEW-YORK72010
Old ForgeNEW-YORK61976
Horse MtnMAINE52010
HighmarketNEW-YORK51990
BiddefordMAINE42000
ManchesterMAINE41995
CarrabassettMAINE42000
BenedictaMAINE41993
WashburnMAINE41996
WarrensburgNEW-YORK41992
LandgroveVERMONT41999
Post MillsVERMONT41999
GreensboroVERMONT41988
NewcastleMAINE31994
Otisfield GrMAINE32011
HermonMAINE32011
Seboomook LkMAINE32014
MedwayMAINE32002
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE31995
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE31990
MarlboroVERMONT31973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.