BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

American Black Duck in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Black Duck has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±376.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±376.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±376.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.07
20230.000.000.07
20240.000.000.07
20250.000.000.07
20260.000.000.07

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Black Duck in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA161976
S BerneNEW-YORK91978
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA71982
E NewarkNEW-YORK51996
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA32000
CentervilleNEW-YORK22006
S VandaliaNEW-YORK21968
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA22014
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA22021
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA21992
Yellow SpgWEST-VIRGINIA22001
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY11975
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY11977
WarwickNEW-YORK11970
RiftonNEW-YORK11984
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK11978
OneontaNEW-YORK11974
MilfordNEW-YORK12021
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA11967
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA12004
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA11968
RushPENNSYLVANIA11987
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA12004
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA11970
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.