BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

American Black Duck in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Black Duck has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Black Duck In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±376.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±376.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±376.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.07
20230.000.000.07
20240.000.000.07
20250.000.000.07
20260.000.000.07

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Black Duck in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA161976
S BerneNEW-YORK91978
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA71982
E NewarkNEW-YORK51996
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA32000
CentervilleNEW-YORK22006
S VandaliaNEW-YORK21968
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA22014
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA22021
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA21992
Yellow SpgWEST-VIRGINIA22001
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY11975
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY11977
WarwickNEW-YORK11970
RiftonNEW-YORK11984
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK11978
OneontaNEW-YORK11974
MilfordNEW-YORK12021
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA11967
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA12004
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA11968
RushPENNSYLVANIA11987
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA12004
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA11970
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.