BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWaterfowl

American Black Duck in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Black Duck has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.35
20260.000.000.35
20270.000.000.35
20280.000.000.35
20290.000.000.35

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording American Black Duck in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MarionMASSACHUSETTS201981
WestbrookCONNECTICUT91991
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS71973
WillimanticCONNECTICUT51970
JonesMARYLAND51972
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS52010
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY51972
Bethany BchDELAWARE41990
MadisonMARYLAND42024
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY42008
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY41997
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND42004
MillingtonMARYLAND31980
MelitotaMARYLAND31971
EastonMARYLAND31998
SinepuxentMARYLAND31976
HuntingtonNEW-YORK32022
Jones BeachNEW-YORK32005
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND31978
GloucesterVIRGINIA31992
E HartlandCONNECTICUT21969
DanburyCONNECTICUT21971
HolleyvilleDELAWARE22001
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE21980
Tall TimbersMARYLAND21992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.