BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

American Black Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Black Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2014, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2014TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2014 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2014, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682014
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20100.010.000.19
20110.010.000.19
20120.010.000.19
20130.010.000.19
20140.010.000.19

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Black Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S LyonsMICHIGAN111977
ElderonWISCONSIN32009
GalesburgMICHIGAN21989
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN21969
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA21996
Stevens PtWISCONSIN21996
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN21992
OmroWISCONSIN22000
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN21975
Rolling PrWISCONSIN21982
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN22008
South BendINDIANA11974
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11974
BeldingMICHIGAN11991
MottvilleMICHIGAN11976
St CharlesMICHIGAN11976
No BradleyMICHIGAN11979
PrattvilleMICHIGAN11975
KnappMINNESOTA11981
GraytownOHIO11976
BismarkOHIO11995
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN11975
MatherWISCONSIN11992
ManawaWISCONSIN11980
ManitowocWISCONSIN11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.