Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Black Duck Population Trend in Michigan
American Black Duck in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
-56%Since 1971
27Routes In State
37Years
Notable American Black Duck Trends in Michigan
long arc declinecomputed index
American Black Duck has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
American Black Duck Population Forecast in Michigan
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2021
0.01Projected 2021 index
0.00–0.2195% range
±31.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| 2018 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| 2019 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| 2020 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| 2021 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
American Black Duck Survey Routes in Michigan
| S Lyons | 11 | 1977 | 1977 |
| Beaver Lake | 3 | 1981 | 1981 |
| Ned Lake | 2 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Herman | 2 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Irons | 2 | 1979 | 1979 |
| Skegemog Pt | 2 | 2011 | 1974 |
| Galesburg | 2 | 1989 | 1973 |
| Howardsville | 2 | 1969 | 1969 |
| Cathro | 2 | 1970 | 1970 |
| Ontonagon | 1 | 1972 | 1972 |
| Bergland | 1 | 1993 | 1993 |
| Crystal Fls | 1 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Seney Nwr | 1 | 2016 | 1995 |
| Wilson | 1 | 2003 | 1969 |
| Bear Lake | 1 | 1972 | 1972 |
| Scottville | 1 | 1974 | 1971 |
| Tahquamenon | 1 | 1979 | 1979 |
| Gilchrist | 1 | 1996 | 1979 |
| Pleasant Val | 1 | 1985 | 1985 |
| Belding | 1 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Mottville | 1 | 1976 | 1976 |
| Pickford | 1 | 2000 | 1973 |
| Walloon Lake | 1 | 1977 | 1977 |
| Frederic | 1 | 1990 | 1990 |
| St Charles | 1 | 1976 | 1976 |
American Black Duck Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.