Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Black Duck Population Trend in New Jersey
American Black Duck in New Jersey has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-81%Since 1968
19Routes In State
44Years
Notable American Black Duck Trends in New Jersey
long arc declinecomputed index
American Black Duck has collapsed in New Jersey: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
American Black Duck Population Forecast in New Jersey
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.08 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2027
0.00Projected 2027 index
0.00–0.4195% range
±87.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| 2024 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| 2025 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
American Black Duck Survey Routes in New Jersey
| Bennett Mill | 5 | 1972 | 1967 |
| Six Points | 4 | 2008 | 1978 |
| Spraguetown | 4 | 1997 | 1982 |
| Toms River | 2 | 1997 | 1974 |
| Masonville | 2 | 1968 | 1968 |
| New Bedford | 2 | 1974 | 1974 |
| Croton | 2 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Ocean City | 2 | 2022 | 1979 |
| Mt Misery | 2 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Pedricktown 2 | 2 | 2013 | 2013 |
| Cape May Ch | 2 | 2001 | 1992 |
| Woodbury Hgt | 1 | 1970 | 1970 |
| Greenwich | 1 | 2014 | 1968 |
| Deepwater | 1 | 1977 | 1969 |
| Albion | 1 | 1989 | 1971 |
| Midvale | 1 | 1975 | 1967 |
| Kemah Lake | 1 | 1977 | 1966 |
| Villas | 1 | 1979 | 1979 |
| Winslow | 1 | 1990 | 1990 |
American Black Duck Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.