BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

American Black Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Black Duck has collapsed in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.17
20260.010.000.16
20270.010.000.16
20280.010.000.16
20290.000.000.16

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Black Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MahtowaMINNESOTA52010
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN31981
Ned LakeMICHIGAN21986
HermanMICHIGAN21991
IronsMICHIGAN21979
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN22011
CathroMICHIGAN21970
HovlandMINNESOTA21983
CohassetMINNESOTA21980
ExelandWISCONSIN21999
GilmanWISCONSIN22005
IrmaWISCONSIN21987
OntonagonMICHIGAN11972
BerglandMICHIGAN11993
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN12009
WilsonMICHIGAN12003
Bear LakeMICHIGAN11972
TahquamenonMICHIGAN11979
GilchristMICHIGAN11996
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN11985
PickfordMICHIGAN12000
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN11977
FredericMICHIGAN11990
Seney NwrMICHIGAN12016
LockportMINNESOTA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.