BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead Population Analysis

AnatidaeWaterfowlAythya americana

Redhead has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
325RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Redhead

The Redhead (Aythya americana) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 325 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 23 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Redhead TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in surveyed states: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Redhead Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead is projected to rise about 89% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.10–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead is projected to rise about 89% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.10–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.090.47
20270.280.090.47
20280.280.090.47
20290.280.090.47
20300.290.100.47

Where the Redhead Is Detected

BBS routes recording Redhead, sized by most recent count.

Redhead Population Trend by State

Redhead population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaskainsufficient datan/a3
Arizonainsufficient datan/a2
California+92%197222
Colorado-20%197727
Idaho-90%197116
Iowainsufficient datan/a1
Kansas-44%19704
Michiganinsufficient datan/a1
Minnesota-53%197019
Montana+96%197231
Nebraska+213%197816
Nevada-29%197115
New Mexico-70%19786
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a1
North Dakota+615%196938
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a1
Oregon+245%197115
South Dakota-72%196932
Texas-88%197810
Utah-86%198621
Washington+3%197722
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a2
Wyoming+73%198120

Redhead Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Redhead population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin+39%197081
Northern Rockies-25%197231
Prairie Potholes+123%196975
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-64%198029
Badlands and Prairies+420%197538
Shortgrass Prairie-87%197724
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-51%196916
Prairie Hardwood Transition-67%19786
Coastal California+33%19747

Redhead Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 93% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.