BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Redhead in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 420% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+420%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 419% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Redhead In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.380.001.4
20270.380.001.4
20280.380.001.4
20290.380.001.4
20300.390.001.4

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Redhead in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA672023
Two DotMONTANA182024
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
IngomarMONTANA82024
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA81998
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA61996
RiverviewWYOMING62021
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA52019
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA42014
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42024
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA42008
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA32009
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA32010
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA31997
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
NatronaWYOMING31988
BucknumWYOMING32000
LeroyMONTANA22017
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA22021
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA21986
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA21998
WyarnoWYOMING21977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.