BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Redhead in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 471% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+471%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 471% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Redhead In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.001.4
20260.410.001.4
20270.410.001.4
20280.410.001.4
20290.420.001.4

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Redhead in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA672023
Two DotMONTANA182024
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
IngomarMONTANA82024
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA81998
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA61996
RiverviewWYOMING62021
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA52019
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA42014
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42024
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA42008
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA32009
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA32010
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA31997
NatronaWYOMING31988
BucknumWYOMING32000
LeroyMONTANA22017
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA22021
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA21986
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA21998
WyarnoWYOMING21977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.