BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Wyoming has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+116%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in Wyoming: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Redhead Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Wyoming is projected to rise about 123% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+123%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±216.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Wyoming is projected to rise about 123% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.65
20260.270.000.65
20270.270.000.65
20280.280.000.65
20290.280.000.66

Redhead Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Redhead in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock River3520221990
Carter 21120242018
Fontenelle720212016
Riverview620211999
Brookhurst420191980
Natrona319881981
Bucknum320001996
Wyarno219771977
Recluse220161983
Seedskadee220151996
Lamont219931993
Harmony220221988
Flamin Gorge219941994
Yellowstone120161987
Clark120062006
Tensleep120102010
Soda Well119821982
Newcastle119991999
Shirley119891989
Walcott120191989

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.