BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead Population Trend in Colorado

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Colorado has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-20%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Redhead in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Redhead Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Colorado is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±202.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Colorado is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.92
20270.070.000.91
20280.070.000.91
20290.060.000.90
20300.050.000.89

Redhead Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Redhead in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guffey820162016
Julesburg820042004
Kiowa620031973
Rio Grnds Rs620121999
Dinosaur620251999
Thomasville619921992
Mcphee Res.520191998
Doyle Bridge519951995
Falfa419871987
Doyleville320071988
Moffat219921992
Dolores219751975
Fort Morgan220092001
Karval220192015
Piedra220221993
Fox Creek220212021
San Luis220091991
Arsenal119981998
Fleming119771977
Walden120101990
Hudson120151990
Willow Peak120102010
Alamosa120251988
Pritchett120082002
Tincup120181995

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.