BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Oregon has surged: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+245%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in Oregon: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Redhead Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Oregon is projected to rise about 24× by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6995.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

24×Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6995.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Oregon is projected to rise about 24× by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6995.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.006.9
20271.40.006.9
20281.40.006.9
20291.40.007.0
20301.40.007.0

Redhead Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Redhead in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner Vally15920241993
Harney Lake1819991993
Catlow Rim520252012
Bly219901990
Clover Creek219891989
Flook Lake220131999
Malheur Nwr219981986
Modoc Point220111970
Umatilla119941992
Dell Spring119691969
Princeton119841972
Buchanan119881988
Blizzard Gap120251984
Fish Lake120211972
Alvord Lake120222022

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.