BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Nebraska has surged: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+213%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in Nebraska: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Redhead Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Nebraska is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±317.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±317.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Nebraska is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±317.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.000.65
20270.230.000.65
20280.240.000.65
20290.240.000.66
20300.240.000.66

Redhead Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Redhead in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paxton1820152015
Crescent Lk1620251980
Stratton1420152015
Arthur920232023
Kennedy920081993
Hampton620192019
Brownlee420162009
Wheeler Co320241978
Piester Lake320231967
Table220032003
Belvidere219731973
Nenzel220192019
Bassett220192019
Gordon120191996
Richland120162016
Swan Lake120221984

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.