BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Montana has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+120%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in Montana: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Redhead Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.34 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.34 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.001.4
20260.340.001.4
20270.340.001.4
20280.340.001.4
20290.340.001.4

Redhead Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Redhead in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Two Dot1820241988
Ingomar820241977
Red Rock719951993
Malta620231976
Polson519961990
Harlem419931993
Westby420212015
Pablo Res.420241997
Whitlash420142012
Hay Lake320031994
Sunburst320031975
Oswego319781978
Augusta320221979
Great Falls319891979
Kalispell220161969
Cleveland219901985
Willow Creek 2220232021
Arlee220112011
Leroy220171996
Shelby220182018
Ester Lake220232016
Wolf Point220232023
Dinosaurs H.M.220212021
Highwood120241973
Savage119801980

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotanebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.