BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in North Dakota has surged: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+615%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in North Dakota: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Redhead Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in North Dakota is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in North Dakota is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.75.414
20279.95.614
2028105.814
2029105.914
2030106.115

Redhead Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Redhead in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild Rose8120251982
Bentley6720231989
Lakota5020091968
Lakota 24020252010
Wimbledon2520251994
Braddock2220231988
Buchanan2020251967
Denbigh1520251969
Webster1420241992
Niles1320251992
Carpio1320231974
Montpelier820251995
Horsehead Lk720251980
Danzig620141982
Sheyenne Lk620251980
Forman520251968
Edgeley420251982
Rolla420241969
Dunn Center420141977
Bowman420241972
Cedar Creek320092009
Sydney219811979
Lake George220221967
Emerado220171974
Loraine220131982

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.