BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in North Dakota has surged: up 755% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+755%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in North Dakota: up 755% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Redhead Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in North Dakota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in North Dakota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.75.314
20269.95.514
2027105.614
2028105.815
2029106.015

Redhead Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Redhead in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Niles7820241992
Bentley6720231989
Braddock5320221988
Horsehead Lk5020241980
Lakota5020091968
Wimbledon3820241994
Wild Rose3020241982
Lakota 23020242010
Buchanan2720241967
Sheyenne Lk2120241980
Webster1420241992
Carpio1320231974
Denbigh1020241969
Montpelier720241995
Danzig620141982
Edgeley520241982
Rolla420241969
Regan420191971
Dunn Center420141977
Bowman420241972
Cedar Creek320092009
Forman220241968
Sydney219811979
Lake George220221967
Emerado220171974

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorkoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.