BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Washington has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-21%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Redhead in Washington. See the full index history below.

Redhead Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Washington is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±324.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±324.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Washington is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±324.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.001.3
20260.300.001.3
20270.290.001.3
20280.280.001.3
20290.270.001.2

Redhead Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Redhead in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keystone3620241994
Othello3019911982
Columbia Nwr2020211992
Brewster1220181978
Moses Lake1220221977
Wilbur1020051984
Harrington819801980
Tonasket620181983
Turnbull Nwr520231993
Moses Coulee420231996
Malden320052005
Odessa319931993
Twisp220042004
Reardan220091969
Wapato219941983
Cusick219971997
Connell119971994
Asotin119901990
Ewan119991991
Potholes120172017
Mesa119951995

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.