BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Redhead Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Minnesota is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Minnesota is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.58
20270.070.000.58
20280.070.000.57
20290.060.000.57
20300.050.000.56

Redhead Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Redhead in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tenney2020161978
Le Center920041996
Dawson820161985
Hartland520021967
Glyndon420131978
Tyler420192014
Big Stone320121996
Fairmont320252025
Appleton220252010
Gluek220081981
Chokio220241970
Tracy220182018
Ashby220092009
Greenbush219961996
Courtland120151979
Redwood Fall119791979
Knapp120001969
Austin120012001
Glenwood120162002

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.