BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Utah has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-50%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Redhead in Utah. See the full index history below.

Redhead Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Utah is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+122%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±344.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Utah is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.002.2
20260.200.002.2
20270.170.002.1
20280.140.002.1
20290.110.002.1

Redhead Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Redhead in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River3120231993
Hatch820032003
Oak City619961988
Promontory420111986
Goshen420091998
Beck319861986
Callao320241992
La Sal 2220062006
Navajo Lake219931969
Lynn220211983
M Warner Res220102001
Castle Dale220152015
Hardware Ranch219951995
Neponset Res120171998
E. Bear Lake120121995
Notch Peak119931993
Boulder120061992
Randolph120231992
Bicknell120181997
Gold Hill120221991
Main Canyon120101999

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.