BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Texas has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-51%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has fallen sharply in Texas: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Redhead Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.22
20250.040.000.22
20260.040.000.22
20270.040.000.22
20280.040.000.22

Redhead Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Redhead in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalhart1120162016
Pantex420231979
Waka420171976
Floydada220162007
Dougherty220171997
Claytonville220222001
Circle119991982
Texline119891989
Loyola Beach120001999
Campbellton120002000

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.