BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWaterfowl

Redhead in Kansas has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Redhead Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Redhead in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Redhead Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Kansas is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Kansas is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.81
20270.170.000.80
20280.160.000.80
20290.160.000.80
20300.160.000.79

Redhead Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Redhead in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Albert920251968
Coats119871987
Plymell120212001
Grigston120192019

Redhead Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.