BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Redhead in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-64%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Redhead In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±246.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.76
20270.070.000.75
20280.060.000.75
20290.050.000.74
20300.050.000.73

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Redhead in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CapulinNEW-MEXICO91993
GuffeyCOLORADO82016
HatchUTAH82003
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO62012
ThomasvilleCOLORADO61992
DinosaurCOLORADO62025
Mcphee Res.COLORADO52019
FalfaCOLORADO41987
BrookhurstWYOMING42019
DoylevilleCOLORADO32007
BeckUTAH31986
MoffatCOLORADO21992
DoloresCOLORADO21975
San LuisCOLORADO22009
PiedraCOLORADO22022
Fox CreekCOLORADO22021
Navajo LakeUTAH21993
M Warner ResUTAH22025
Castle DaleUTAH22015
La Sal 2UTAH22006
WaldenCOLORADO12010
Willow PeakCOLORADO12010
AlamosaCOLORADO12025
CortezCOLORADO12006
TincupCOLORADO12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.