BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Redhead in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Redhead In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.51
20260.120.000.50
20270.110.000.50
20280.110.000.50
20290.110.000.50

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Redhead in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbertKANSAS412019
StrattonNEBRASKA142015
KennedyNEBRASKA92008
ArthurNEBRASKA92023
HamptonNEBRASKA62019
BrownleeNEBRASKA42016
Piester LakeNEBRASKA32023
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA32024
BelvidereNEBRASKA21973
TableNEBRASKA22003
NenzelNEBRASKA22019
BassettNEBRASKA22019
CoatsKANSAS11987
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12022
GordonNEBRASKA12019
Crescent LkNEBRASKA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.