BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Redhead in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Redhead In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±245.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.52
20270.130.000.52
20280.130.000.52
20290.130.000.52
20300.130.000.52

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Redhead in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent LkNEBRASKA162025
StrattonNEBRASKA142015
AlbertKANSAS92025
KennedyNEBRASKA92008
ArthurNEBRASKA92023
HamptonNEBRASKA62019
BrownleeNEBRASKA42016
Piester LakeNEBRASKA32023
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA32024
BelvidereNEBRASKA21973
TableNEBRASKA22003
NenzelNEBRASKA22019
BassettNEBRASKA22019
CoatsKANSAS11987
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12022
GordonNEBRASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.