BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Redhead in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+64%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Redhead In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±286.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±286.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±286.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.004.8
20261.50.004.8
20271.50.004.8
20281.50.004.7
20291.50.004.7

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Redhead in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner VallyOREGON1592024
DorrisCALIFORNIA562019
KeystoneWASHINGTON362024
Bear RiverUTAH312023
OthelloWASHINGTON301991
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON202021
PrestonIDAHO181994
Harney LakeOREGON181999
Pasadena ValIDAHO161991
Catlow RimOREGON122017
BrewsterWASHINGTON122018
Moses LakeWASHINGTON122022
MadelineCALIFORNIA102018
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA102021
WilburWASHINGTON102005
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA82002
HarringtonWASHINGTON81980
HikoNEVADA71973
Blizzard GapOREGON72023
PicaboIDAHO62009
CortezNEVADA62024
Oak CityUTAH61996
TonasketWASHINGTON62018
Blacks CreekIDAHO51974
EurekaNEVADA52017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.