BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Redhead in Northern Rockies has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+147%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in Northern Rockies: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 134% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±398.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+134%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±398.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 134% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±398.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.55
20260.240.000.56
20270.240.000.56
20280.250.000.56
20290.250.000.56

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Redhead in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock RiverWYOMING352022
NaplesIDAHO232022
Carter 2WYOMING112024
Crane CreekIDAHO72008
Red RockMONTANA71995
FontenelleWYOMING72021
PolsonMONTANA51996
Pablo Res.MONTANA42024
AugustaMONTANA32022
CabartonIDAHO22022
KalispellMONTANA22016
ArleeMONTANA22011
Willow Creek 2MONTANA22023
Clover CreekOREGON21989
CusickWASHINGTON21997
LamontWYOMING21993
HarmonyWYOMING22022
Flamin GorgeWYOMING21994
SeedskadeeWYOMING22015
Yellow PineIDAHO12012
FeathervilleIDAHO12010
WoodmanMONTANA11974
BeaverheadMONTANA12019
RandolphUTAH12023
Neponset ResUTAH12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.