BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Redhead in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+123%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Redhead In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.7–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.7–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.46.5
20274.52.56.5
20284.62.56.6
20294.62.66.6
20304.72.76.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Redhead in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA812025
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA502009
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA402025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA252025
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA222023
TenneyMINNESOTA202016
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA202025
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA202021
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA202019
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA152025
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA142024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA132025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA132023
VirgelleMONTANA102025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA102024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA92011
DawsonMINNESOTA82016
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA82025
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA82019
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA72025
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
MaltaMONTANA62023
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA62014
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA62025
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA61984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.