BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Redhead In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-87%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Redhead In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 87% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 87% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.60
20270.040.000.60
20280.030.000.59
20290.030.000.59
20300.030.000.59

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA182015
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO122025
DalhartTEXAS112016
JulesburgCOLORADO82004
KiowaCOLORADO62003
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO61973
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO51995
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO41978
WakaTEXAS42017
PantexTEXAS32025
Fort MorganCOLORADO22009
KarvalCOLORADO22019
HookerOKLAHOMA22015
FloydadaTEXAS22016
DoughertyTEXAS22017
ClaytonvilleTEXAS22022
FlemingCOLORADO11977
HudsonCOLORADO12015
PritchettCOLORADO12008
ArsenalCOLORADO11998
PlymellKANSAS12021
GrigstonKANSAS12019
CircleTEXAS11999
TexlineTEXAS11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.