BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Redhead In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-96%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Redhead has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Redhead In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 72% by 2028 — from 0.05 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 72% by 2028 — from 0.05 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.030.000.60
20250.030.000.59
20260.020.000.59
20270.020.000.59
20280.010.000.58

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA182015
DalhartTEXAS112016
JulesburgCOLORADO82004
KiowaCOLORADO62003
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO61973
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO51995
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO41978
PantexTEXAS42023
WakaTEXAS42017
Fort MorganCOLORADO22009
KarvalCOLORADO22019
HookerOKLAHOMA22015
FloydadaTEXAS22016
DoughertyTEXAS22017
ClaytonvilleTEXAS22022
FlemingCOLORADO11977
HudsonCOLORADO12015
PritchettCOLORADO12008
ArsenalCOLORADO11998
PlymellKANSAS12021
GrigstonKANSAS12019
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12015
CircleTEXAS11999
TexlineTEXAS11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.