Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Redhead In Shortgrass Prairie
Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
-96%Since 1977
24Routes In Region
36Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Redhead has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Redhead in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 72% by 2028 — from 0.05 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-72%Change by 2028
0.01Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.5895% range
±96.1%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| 2025 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| 2026 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| 2027 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| 2028 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
Routes In Shortgrass Prairie
| Paxton | NEBRASKA | 18 | 2015 |
| Dalhart | TEXAS | 11 | 2016 |
| Julesburg | COLORADO | 8 | 2004 |
| Kiowa | COLORADO | 6 | 2003 |
| Wagon Mound | NEW-MEXICO | 6 | 1973 |
| Doyle Bridge | COLORADO | 5 | 1995 |
| Grenville | NEW-MEXICO | 4 | 1978 |
| Pantex | TEXAS | 4 | 2023 |
| Waka | TEXAS | 4 | 2017 |
| Fort Morgan | COLORADO | 2 | 2009 |
| Karval | COLORADO | 2 | 2019 |
| Hooker | OKLAHOMA | 2 | 2015 |
| Floydada | TEXAS | 2 | 2016 |
| Dougherty | TEXAS | 2 | 2017 |
| Claytonville | TEXAS | 2 | 2022 |
| Fleming | COLORADO | 1 | 1977 |
| Hudson | COLORADO | 1 | 2015 |
| Pritchett | COLORADO | 1 | 2008 |
| Arsenal | COLORADO | 1 | 1998 |
| Plymell | KANSAS | 1 | 2021 |
| Grigston | KANSAS | 1 | 2019 |
| Maxwell | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2015 |
| Circle | TEXAS | 1 | 1999 |
| Texline | TEXAS | 1 | 1989 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.