BirdAnalyst
Guild · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In Alaska

All statesAlaska

25 species in this guild. As a group they are -69%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1975.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Waterfowl as a group have fallen sharply in Alaska, down 69% since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Alaska is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Alaska is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.002.0
20260.480.002.0
20270.460.002.0
20280.430.001.9
20290.400.001.9

Member Species In Alaska

Waterfowl species in Alaska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
White-winged ScoterAnatidae-90%
Common MerganserAnatidae-87%
GadwallAnatidae-87%
Harlequin DuckAnatidae-76%
MallardAnatidae-67%
Surf ScoterAnatidae-61%
Green-winged TealAnatidae-52%
Northern ShovelerAnatidae-52%
Red-breasted MerganserAnatidae-42%
BuffleheadAnatidae-36%
Barrow's GoldeneyeAnatidae-28%
Common GoldeneyeAnatidae-21%
Long-tailed DuckAnatidae-17%
Black ScoterAnatidae+1%
Greater ScaupAnatidae+45%
Ring-necked DuckAnatidae+59%
Northern PintailAnatidae+66%
Common EiderAnatidae+69%
Trumpeter SwanAnatidae+107%
Canada GooseAnatidae+137%
Lesser ScaupAnatidae+153%
Tundra SwanAnatidae+174%
American WigeonAnatidae+246%
CanvasbackAnatidae+535%
Greater White-fronted GooseAnatidae20×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.