BirdAnalyst
Guild · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Waterfowl In Alaska

All statesAlaska

25 species in this guild. As a group they are -75%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1975.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Waterfowl as a group have fallen sharply in Alaska, down 75% since 1975.

Waterfowl In Alaska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Alaska is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Alaska is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.002.0
20270.450.001.9
20280.420.001.9
20290.400.001.9
20300.370.001.9

Member Species In Alaska

Waterfowl species in Alaska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Common MerganserAnatidae-91%
White-winged ScoterAnatidae-91%
GadwallAnatidae-90%
Harlequin DuckAnatidae-86%
MallardAnatidae-72%
Northern ShovelerAnatidae-68%
Long-tailed DuckAnatidae-59%
Red-breasted MerganserAnatidae-57%
Green-winged TealAnatidae-55%
Surf ScoterAnatidae-52%
Common GoldeneyeAnatidae-33%
Barrow's GoldeneyeAnatidae-30%
BuffleheadAnatidae-26%
Black ScoterAnatidae+16%
Trumpeter SwanAnatidae+21%
Northern PintailAnatidae+43%
Greater ScaupAnatidae+49%
Canada GooseAnatidae+60%
Common EiderAnatidae+68%
Tundra SwanAnatidae+110%
American WigeonAnatidae+114%
Ring-necked DuckAnatidae+145%
Lesser ScaupAnatidae+204%
Greater White-fronted GooseAnatidae+841%
CanvasbackAnatidae26×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.