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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater White-fronted Goose Population Trend in Alaska

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Greater White-fronted Goose in Alaska has surged: up 841% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+841%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater White-fronted Goose Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater White-fronted Goose has surged in Alaska: up 841% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Greater White-fronted Goose Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in Alaska is projected to rise about 928% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.03–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+928%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in Alaska is projected to rise about 928% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.03–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.50.007.4
20273.60.007.5
20283.70.007.6
20293.80.007.7
20303.90.037.8

Greater White-fronted Goose Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Greater White-fronted Goose in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utqiagvik12120232021
Hather Creek4720241993
Kanuti Canyn2720241993
Nicholai Sl1220251993
Mud River1220241993
Kotzebue1020112011
Anvik River920241998
Kanuti Lake920242006
Circle819961986
Chatanika R820042004
Kachemak720222022
Red Dog620251995
Galena (Short)620231999
Koyukuk Riv.420011999
Manley Ht Sp420072007
Kenny Lake419861986
L Salcha320002000
Toklat220242001
Unalakleet River220042003
Galbraith L.220251995
Happy Valley220251995
St. Mary'S220021993
Gweek River220011995
Tatalina220022002
Bear Creek219911988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.