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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater White-fronted Goose Population Trend in Alaska

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Greater White-fronted Goose in Alaska has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

20×Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater White-fronted Goose Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater White-fronted Goose has surged in Alaska: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Greater White-fronted Goose Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in Alaska is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.47–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in Alaska is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.47–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.047.6
20263.90.157.7
20274.00.267.8
20284.10.367.9
20294.20.478.0

Greater White-fronted Goose Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Greater White-fronted Goose in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utqiagvik12120232021
Hather Creek4720241993
Kanuti Canyn2720241993
Red Dog1620241995
Happy Valley1520241995
Mud River1220241993
Kotzebue1020112011
Anvik River920241998
Kanuti Lake920242006
Circle819961986
Chatanika R820042004
Kachemak720222022
Galena (Short)620231999
Galbraith L.520241995
Koyukuk Riv.420011999
Manley Ht Sp420072007
Kenny Lake419861986
Nicholai Sl320241993
L Salcha320002000
Toklat220242001
Unalakleet River220042003
St. Mary'S220021993
Gweek River220011995
Tatalina220022002
Bear Creek219911988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.