BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater White-fronted Goose

AnatidaeWaterfowlAnser albifrons

Greater White-fronted Goose has surged: up 42× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

42×Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Greater White-fronted Goose

The Greater White-fronted Goose (Anser albifrons) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 28 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Greater White-fronted Goose TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater White-fronted Goose. See the full index history below.

Greater White-fronted Goose Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.01–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.01–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.21
20260.110.000.22
20270.110.010.22
20280.120.010.22
20290.120.010.23

Where the Greater White-fronted Goose Is Detected

BBS routes recording Greater White-fronted Goose, sized by most recent count.

Greater White-fronted Goose Population Trend by State

Greater White-fronted Goose population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska20×198828

Greater White-fronted Goose Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Greater White-fronted Goose population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 314×19974
BCR 4+608%199119

Greater White-fronted Goose Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 4060% since 1988.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.