BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater White-fronted Goose In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Waterfowl

Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 3 has surged: up 391% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+391%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater White-fronted Goose has surged in BCR 3: up 391% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Greater White-fronted Goose In BCR 3 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 19× by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 0.00–117). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

19×Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–11795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 19× by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 0.00–117). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026410.00111
2027420.00112
2028440.00114
2029460.00116
2030470.00117

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 3.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UtqiagvikALASKA1212023
Red DogALASKA62025
Galbraith L.ALASKA22025
Happy ValleyALASKA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.