BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater White-fronted Goose In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Waterfowl

Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 3 has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1997.

14×Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater White-fronted Goose has surged in BCR 3: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 486% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 0.00–123). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+486%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–12395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 486% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 0.00–123). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025450.00115
2026470.00117
2027490.00119
2028510.00121
2029530.00123

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 3.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UtqiagvikALASKA1212023
Red DogALASKA162024
Happy ValleyALASKA152024
Galbraith L.ALASKA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.