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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater White-fronted Goose In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 4 has surged: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+381%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater White-fronted Goose has surged in BCR 4: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Greater White-fronted Goose In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 735% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.06–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±299.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+735%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±299.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 735% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.06–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±299.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.005.2
20272.60.005.2
20282.60.005.3
20292.70.025.3
20302.70.065.4

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hather CreekALASKA472024
Kanuti CanynALASKA272024
Nicholai SlALASKA122025
Mud RiverALASKA122024
Anvik RiverALASKA92024
Kanuti LakeALASKA92024
CircleALASKA81996
Chatanika RALASKA82004
KachemakALASKA72022
Galena (Short)ALASKA62023
Kenny LakeALASKA41986
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA42001
Manley Ht SpALASKA42007
L SalchaALASKA32000
ToklatALASKA22024
Bear CreekALASKA21991
Unalakleet RiverALASKA22004
TatalinaALASKA22002
PetersvilleALASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.