BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater White-fronted Goose In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 4 has surged: up 608% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+608%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater White-fronted Goose has surged in BCR 4: up 608% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 0.45–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 0.45–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.265.4
20262.90.315.4
20272.90.365.5
20283.00.415.5
20293.00.455.6

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Greater White-fronted Goose in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hather CreekALASKA472024
Kanuti CanynALASKA272024
Mud RiverALASKA122024
Anvik RiverALASKA92024
Kanuti LakeALASKA92024
CircleALASKA81996
Chatanika RALASKA82004
KachemakALASKA72022
Galena (Short)ALASKA62023
Kenny LakeALASKA41986
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA42001
Manley Ht SpALASKA42007
L SalchaALASKA32000
Nicholai SlALASKA32024
ToklatALASKA22024
Bear CreekALASKA21991
Unalakleet RiverALASKA22004
TatalinaALASKA22002
PetersvilleALASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.