Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Harlequin Duck Population Trend in Alaska
Harlequin Duck in Alaska has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1983.
-76%Since 1983
38Routes In State
43Years
Notable Harlequin Duck Trends in Alaska
long arc declinecomputed index
Harlequin Duck has collapsed in Alaska: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1983.
Harlequin Duck Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Harlequin Duck in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.695% range
±135.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
Harlequin Duck Survey Routes in Alaska
| Zarembo | 47 | 2001 | 2001 |
| Thorne Bay | 18 | 1994 | 1993 |
| Adak | 16 | 2001 | 1983 |
| Mitkof Isle | 16 | 1995 | 1988 |
| Sourdough | 14 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Chiniak | 12 | 2023 | 1985 |
| Skagway | 8 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Thorne Bay 2 | 8 | 2023 | 2023 |
| Zimovia Strt | 7 | 2024 | 1988 |
| Unalakleet River | 6 | 2023 | 1996 |
| Cape Nome | 5 | 2018 | 1993 |
| Salmon Lake | 5 | 2018 | 1994 |
| Teller | 5 | 2018 | 1995 |
| Sitka (Short) | 5 | 1992 | 1984 |
| Juneau | 4 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Petersburg | 4 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Juneau Alt | 3 | 1985 | 1984 |
| Stikine River | 2 | 2007 | 2007 |
| Council | 2 | 2018 | 1994 |
| Haines | 2 | 2022 | 1975 |
| Nome | 2 | 2012 | 1999 |
| Hyder | 2 | 2007 | 2003 |
| Kotzebue | 2 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Kodiak 2 | 2 | 2021 | 1985 |
| Savage | 2 | 2007 | 1994 |
Harlequin Duck Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.