Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Bufflehead Population Trend in Alaska
Bufflehead in Alaska has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
-36%Since 1986
38Routes In State
38Years
Notable Bufflehead Trends in Alaska
No notable trend signals for Bufflehead in Alaska. See the full index history below.
Bufflehead Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead in Alaska is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-23%Change by 2029
0.18Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5295% range
±20.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| 2026 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| 2027 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| 2028 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| 2029 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
Bufflehead Survey Routes in Alaska
| Porcupine R. | 10 | 2002 | 1994 |
| Monahan | 8 | 2017 | 1983 |
| Nicholai Sl | 6 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Bear Creek | 6 | 1990 | 1986 |
| Mccarthy Rd2 | 4 | 2017 | 1993 |
| Delta | 4 | 2024 | 2024 |
| Chicken | 4 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Slana | 3 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Coldfoot | 3 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Koyukuk Riv. | 3 | 2001 | 1999 |
| Kanuti Lake | 3 | 2024 | 2008 |
| Circle | 2 | 2023 | 1987 |
| Toklat | 2 | 2019 | 1987 |
| Kanuti Canyn | 2 | 2024 | 2007 |
| Mud River | 2 | 2024 | 2022 |
| Sheep Mtn | 2 | 1984 | 1983 |
| Birch Lake | 1 | 2013 | 2010 |
| Livengood | 1 | 2018 | 2018 |
| Nabesna Road | 1 | 1998 | 1993 |
| Kuskulana | 1 | 2022 | 2015 |
| Chistochina | 1 | 2001 | 1996 |
| Northway | 1 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Cantwell | 1 | 2000 | 1986 |
| Chena Hot Spring 2 | 1 | 2024 | 1999 |
| Donelly Dome | 1 | 2022 | 2007 |
Bufflehead Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.