BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bufflehead Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Bufflehead in Alaska has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-36%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bufflehead Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bufflehead in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Bufflehead Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead in Alaska is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead in Alaska is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.53
20260.190.000.52
20270.190.000.52
20280.190.000.52
20290.180.000.52

Bufflehead Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Bufflehead in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Porcupine R.1020021994
Monahan820171983
Nicholai Sl620221993
Bear Creek619901986
Mccarthy Rd2420171993
Delta420242024
Chicken419941994
Slana320241994
Coldfoot320231995
Koyukuk Riv.320011999
Kanuti Lake320242008
Circle220231987
Toklat220191987
Kanuti Canyn220242007
Mud River220242022
Sheep Mtn219841983
Birch Lake120132010
Livengood120182018
Nabesna Road119981993
Kuskulana120222015
Chistochina120011996
Northway120231994
Cantwell120001986
Chena Hot Spring 2120241999
Donelly Dome120222007

Bufflehead Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahominnesotamontananevadanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.