BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bufflehead Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Bufflehead in Oregon has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-82%Since 1971
14Routes In State
40Years

Notable Bufflehead Trends in Oregon

long arc declinecomputed index

Bufflehead has collapsed in Oregon: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Bufflehead Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead in Oregon is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029
0.05Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4495% range
±88.3%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.060.000.45
20260.060.000.45
20270.060.000.45
20280.060.000.44
20290.050.000.44

Bufflehead Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Bufflehead in Oregon.
Modoc Point1820001973
Catlow Rim820242017
Deschutes720222022
Barnes Val419871974
Elk Lake319861975
Bly 2220192014
Merrill120122012
Warner Vally120241994
Summit Pr120232023
Lapham Res.120241993
Dell Spring119901969
Newbridge120242024
Wedderburn119941994
Blizzard Gap120222003

Bufflehead Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahominnesotamontananevadanorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.