BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bufflehead Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Bufflehead in North Dakota has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

11×Since 1985
11Routes In State
38Years

Notable Bufflehead Trends in North Dakota

long arc increasecomputed index

Bufflehead has surged in North Dakota: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Bufflehead Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead in North Dakota is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.07–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.07–2.295% range
±55.8%Backtest error
19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.00.002.1
20261.00.002.1
20271.10.022.1
20281.10.052.1
20291.10.072.2

Bufflehead Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Bufflehead in North Dakota.
Horsehead Lk5520241998
Wild Rose620241997
Turtle Mtns420241980
Danzig320102000
Cooperstown320132010
Lake George220192019
Douglas Crk220242024
Sheyenne Lk220241994
Rolla220242004
Braddock120211996
Dunn Center119941994

Bufflehead Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahominnesotamontananevadaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.