Bufflehead
Bufflehead has surged: up 484% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
About the Bufflehead
The Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.
- Size
- 12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
- Diet
- Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
- Range
- Recorded on 126 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
- Family
- Anatidae · Waterfowl
Notable Bufflehead Trends
No notable trend signals for Bufflehead. See the full index history below.
Bufflehead Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.02–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| 2026 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| 2027 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| 2028 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| 2029 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
Where the Bufflehead Is Detected
BBS routes recording Bufflehead, sized by most recent count.
Bufflehead Population Trend by State
| Alaska | -36% | 1986 | 38 |
| California | +112% | 1988 | 13 |
| Colorado | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Idaho | -43% | 1987 | 10 |
| Minnesota | insufficient data | n/a | 2 |
| Montana | +252% | 1979 | 16 |
| Nevada | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| North Dakota | 11× | 1985 | 11 |
| Oregon | -82% | 1971 | 14 |
| South Dakota | insufficient data | n/a | 2 |
| Utah | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Washington | insufficient data | n/a | 7 |
| Wisconsin | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Wyoming | -56% | 1989 | 9 |
Bufflehead Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| BCR 4 | -38% | 1987 | 35 |
| Great Basin | -77% | 1971 | 27 |
| Northern Rockies | +223% | 1981 | 28 |
| Prairie Potholes | +938% | 1985 | 15 |
Bufflehead Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 484% since 1971.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.