BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bufflehead In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Bufflehead in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 938% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+938%Since 1985
15Routes In Region
38Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Bufflehead has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 938% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.02–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029
0.47Projected 2029 index
0.02–0.9195% range
±55.9%Backtest error
19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.430.000.88
20260.440.000.89
20270.450.010.90
20280.460.010.91
20290.470.020.91

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Bufflehead in Prairie Potholes.
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA552024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA62024
VirgelleMONTANA52023
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42024
WestbyMONTANA32019
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA32010
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32013
SunburstMONTANA21996
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA22019
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA12021
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA11998
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.