Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Bufflehead In BCR 4
Bufflehead in BCR 4 has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
-38%Since 1987
35Routes In Region
37Years
Notable Signals
No notable trend signals for Bufflehead in BCR 4. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-29%Change by 2029
0.32Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8495% range
±22.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| 2026 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| 2027 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| 2028 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| 2029 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Porcupine R. | ALASKA | 10 | 2002 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 8 | 2017 |
| Bear Creek | ALASKA | 6 | 1990 |
| Nicholai Sl | ALASKA | 6 | 2022 |
| Chicken | ALASKA | 4 | 1994 |
| Delta | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
| Mccarthy Rd2 | ALASKA | 4 | 2017 |
| Slana | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Coldfoot | ALASKA | 3 | 2023 |
| Koyukuk Riv. | ALASKA | 3 | 2001 |
| Kanuti Lake | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Circle | ALASKA | 2 | 2023 |
| Toklat | ALASKA | 2 | 2019 |
| Kanuti Canyn | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Mud River | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Birch Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2013 |
| Livengood | ALASKA | 1 | 2018 |
| Chistochina | ALASKA | 1 | 2001 |
| Northway | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Cantwell | ALASKA | 1 | 2000 |
| Willow | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| L Salcha | ALASKA | 1 | 2001 |
| Chena Hot Sp | ALASKA | 1 | 1990 |
| Kenny Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2008 |
| Sourdough | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.