BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bufflehead In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Bufflehead in Great Basin has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-77%Since 1971
27Routes In Region
47Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Bufflehead has collapsed in Great Basin: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bufflehead in Great Basin is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029
0.06Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2895% range
±41.6%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.070.000.29
20260.070.000.29
20270.070.000.29
20280.060.000.28
20290.060.000.28

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Bufflehead in Great Basin.
BrewsterWASHINGTON222008
Modoc PointOREGON182000
DorrisCALIFORNIA142017
Catlow RimOREGON82024
DeschutesOREGON72022
Bald Mtn.NEVADA62018
Iron SpringsIDAHO42018
Barnes ValOREGON41987
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA22018
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA22013
MadelineCALIFORNIA22024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA22016
SpringfieldIDAHO21978
CareyIDAHO21999
Bly 2OREGON22019
NubieberCALIFORNIA11995
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA12012
Pasadena ValIDAHO11991
Blackft ResIDAHO11987
Dell SpringOREGON11990
Blizzard GapOREGON12022
Lapham Res.OREGON12024
MerrillOREGON12012
Warner VallyOREGON12024
ConnellWASHINGTON11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.