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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Merganser Population Trend in Alaska

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Red-breasted Merganser in Alaska has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-42%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Merganser Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-breasted Merganser in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Red-breasted Merganser Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Merganser in Alaska is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Merganser in Alaska is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.2
20261.10.002.2
20271.10.002.2
20281.10.002.2
20291.10.002.2

Red-breasted Merganser Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Red-breasted Merganser in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Adak4420011983
Goodnews Bay2020051999
Kanektok Riv1820051995
Togiak River1720051994
Cold Bay1320241996
Anvik River1120241998
Haines620081989
Unalakleet River520241996
Kodiak519841983
Dillingham520191994
Kanuti Canyn420241994
Chiniak320241985
Maclaren319871987
Kalifonsky320132013
Nome320231993
Selawik (Short)319871987
Paxson Lake219961996
Slana220132013
Monahan219911991
Ketchikan220092009
Galbraith L.220142014
Happy Valley220162016
Nicholai Sl219991993
Manley Ht Sp220152015
Salmon Lake220241993

Red-breasted Merganser Population Trend in Other States

mainemichiganminnesotawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.