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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-winged Scoter Population Trend in Alaska

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White-winged Scoter in Alaska has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-91%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-winged Scoter Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Scoter has collapsed in Alaska: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

White-winged Scoter Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Scoter in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±346.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±346.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Scoter in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±346.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.002.2
20270.000.002.2
20280.000.002.2
20290.000.002.2
20300.000.002.2

White-winged Scoter Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording White-winged Scoter in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonsina2220182018
Ketchikan1519721972
Mccarthy Rd2820251991
Juneau720121983
Haines620041993
Hather Creek619941994
Thorne Bay 2620172017
King Salmon520072007
Sourdough420252025
Cantwell320102004
Yakutat320011998
Monahan220031983
Cape Nome220182015
Juneau Alt219861986
Galbraith L.220242017
Happy Valley220242008
Kotzebue220252002
Lake Louise219931993
Dietrich Cmp220062006
Chiniak120251990
Northway119941992
Coldfoot120022002
Mud River119931993
Kenny Lake119891987
Sheep Mtn120111983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.