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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Alaska has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+66%Since 1983
67Routes In State
43Years

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in Alaska

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Pintail has risen sharply in Alaska: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Alaska is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029
2.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.895% range
±130.2%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.00.004.7
20262.00.004.7
20272.00.004.7
20282.10.004.8
20292.10.004.8

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Alaska.
Utqiagvik17620232021
Cordova3420081996
Cape Nome2620241993
Kotzebue (Short)2619941986
Nicholai Sl1120241993
Paxson Lake1019951995
Cold Bay1020241993
Kachemak1019981998
Council720241993
Ft. Richrdsn720032003
Goodnews Bay719991999
Nebesna619751975
Happy Valley620241993
Kotzebue620242001
Bear Creek619911986
Chiniak520241985
Monahan520131986
Kalifonsky520222015
Kanektok Riv520012001
Salmon Lake420191993
Murphy Dome420062001
Pinoche Tral (Short)419841984
Gweek River420021997
Adak419971984
Yakutat419981998

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.