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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Alaska has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+66%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has risen sharply in Alaska: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Alaska is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Alaska is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.7
20262.00.004.7
20272.00.004.7
20282.10.004.8
20292.10.004.8

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utqiagvik17620232021
Cordova3420081996
Cape Nome2620241993
Kotzebue (Short)2619941986
Nicholai Sl1120241993
Paxson Lake1019951995
Cold Bay1020241993
Kachemak1019981998
Council720241993
Ft. Richrdsn720032003
Goodnews Bay719991999
Nebesna619751975
Happy Valley620241993
Kotzebue620242001
Bear Creek619911986
Chiniak520241985
Monahan520131986
Kalifonsky520222015
Kanektok Riv520012001
Salmon Lake420191993
Murphy Dome420062001
Pinoche Tral (Short)419841984
Gweek River420021997
Adak419971984
Yakutat419981998

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.