BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Colorado

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Colorado has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-91%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Colorado: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.32
20260.070.000.32
20270.070.000.32
20280.070.000.31
20290.060.000.31

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prospect Valley 25020082008
Walden1220011991
Waverly1020181998
Briggsdale419891983
Fleming420031977
Kiowa420161973
Last Chance420031971
Moffat419951970
Alamosa420181988
Limon420162003
Kirk420092009
Karval320192019
Amherst319981996
San Luis319961996
Great Divide219841984
Pinneo219791979
Colona220082008
Lamar220232023
Mica Butte219821982
Tarryall219951995
Gordon Creek219981995
Dinosaur220241997
Lay220192000
Fort Morgan220061998
Villegreen220052005

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.