BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Idaho has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-84%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Idaho: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±478.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.51
20250.000.000.51
20260.000.000.51
20270.000.000.51
20280.000.000.51

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twin Buttes3019991999
Blacks Creek819861982
Naples420211976
Cedar Hill420152015
Kyle Canyon319991999
Baker220142014
Triangle220081998
Henry219791974
Crane Creek220082002
Picabo220011990
Preston219881988
Pasadena Val220102007
Blackft Res120161984
Cascade119781978
Squirrel119991993
Craters119971982
Springfield119971972
Acequia119901979
Sawtooth City 2120172017
Iron Springs120231988
Mud Lake120191994
Cabarton119961987

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.