BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in North Dakota has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in North Dakota is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in North Dakota is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.30.0015
20265.20.0015
20275.20.0015
20285.20.0015
20295.20.0015

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Northern Pintail in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carpio3920231967
Powers Lake2320231980
Danzig 22120242019
Sydney2019831967
Danzig1920141982
Cedar Creek1820221970
Wild Rose1820241982
Lakota 21820242010
Parshall1520131982
Braddock1420221988
Niles1220241989
Sheyenne Lk1120241980
Wimbledon1020241981
Lakota1020091968
Webster920241992
Montpelier920241995
Edgeley820241980
Buchanan820241967
Stanley820241967
Lark719821968
Bowman620241967
Lake George520221967
Emerado520241974
Cooperstown420241969
Dickinson420221970

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.