BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pintail Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in North Dakota has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in North Dakota is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in North Dakota is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.20.0015
20275.10.0015
20285.10.0015
20295.10.0015
20305.00.0015

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Northern Pintail in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carpio3920231967
Edgeley2920251980
Powers Lake2320231980
Sydney2019831967
Danzig1920141982
Cedar Creek1820221970
Buchanan1720251967
Parshall1520131982
Regan1320231969
Wimbledon1120251981
Lakota1020091968
Danzig 21020252019
Lakota 21020252010
Lake George920231967
Webster920241992
Niles920251989
Stanley820241967
Bowman820251967
Braddock820231988
Lark719821968
Montpelier620251995
Emerado520241974
Sheyenne Lk520251980
Solen520252008
Cooperstown420241969

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.