BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Texas has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-63%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in Texas: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.28
20240.010.000.28
20250.000.000.28
20260.000.000.27
20270.000.000.27

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Circle419821968
Channing419801971
Pantex420181975
Booker419871987
Claytonville320192005
Katy319711971
Floydada220181981
Panhandle220222011
Post220121987
Lamesa219751975
Raymondville119881988
Texline119871980
Waka120171975
Dougherty120171997
Weinert119921988
Catarina119871987
Haskell119961996
Twichell120171999

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.