BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Washington has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-81%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Washington: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±395.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±395.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±395.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.45
20260.000.000.45
20270.000.000.45
20280.000.000.45
20290.000.000.45

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ewan2019951995
Harrington819841977
Cusick219911991
Brewster220111977
Wilbur220172017
Wapato219921992
Everett119881988
Warm Beach119991999
Deception119981998
Moses Lake119901974
Reardan119741974
Asotin120112011
Keystone120242017

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.