BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pintail Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in South Dakota has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in South Dakota: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.77 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.77 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.005.1
20270.880.005.1
20280.840.005.0
20290.810.005.0
20300.770.004.9

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Northern Pintail in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Conde10719841967
Gettysburg4120231969
Gorman3120101980
White Lake2320111967
Turton2120192007
Long Lake1620191967
Cottonwood1520231992
Crow Creek1320191969
Ottumwa1320251967
Laplant820111973
White River819971996
Winner720192010
Lodgepole720251995
Isabel720152011
Raymond620211967
Lane619861968
Owanka520141967
Chamberlain420111972
Veblen320231967
Fort Pierre320191969
Maurine320241971
Railroad Butte320111996
Lennox220031967
Broadland220141967
Ft Thompson219701967

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregontexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.